After America’s Midterm Elections, What Lies Ahead for India?
Dr. James Ralte, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Easwari School of Liberal Arts, SRM University-AP.
The American electorate has sent Donald Trump a message he can hardly ignore. The Republican Party’s defeat in the November midterm elections, which saw the Democrats capture both the House of Representatives and the Senate, has considerably weakened the president’s political position. Trump remains in the White House, but governing the country during the remaining two years of his presidency will be a rather different affair.
The elections were fought largely over domestic concerns. Americans were troubled by rising prices, the economic situation and the continuing war with Iran. Their dissatisfaction was reflected in the scale of the Republican defeat. What happened on 3 November was, above all, a judgement on the administration’s performance at home.
But what happens in American politics seldom stays within America. For countries such as India, which have developed close political, economic and strategic relations with Washington, the change in congressional leadership deserves attention.
One immediate consequence is that Trump can no longer expect Congress to go along with his policies without serious opposition. The Democrats will have greater scope to question his administration, investigate its decisions and obstruct parts of its legislative programme. Foreign policy will not escape this scrutiny, although the president retains substantial authority in conducting international relations.
This presents New Delhi with an interesting situation. India has maintained close relations with successive American administrations, irrespective of their political affiliation. Yet much of the attention in recent years has centred on the personal relationship between political leaders. Such diplomacy certainly has its uses, but it has limitations too. A country cannot build its foreign policy around the political fortunes of another country’s president.
India will now have to pay greater attention to Congress, particularly its influential committees dealing with foreign affairs, defence and trade.
Does this mean that India–US relations are heading for a difficult period? Not necessarily.
There is considerable agreement between Republicans and Democrats on India’s importance in the Indo-Pacific. China’s growing military and economic influence remains a concern in Washington, regardless of which party controls Congress. India occupies an important position in American calculations, particularly in maritime security, defence cooperation and the Quad.
These interests are unlikely to change because of an electoral defeat.
Trade, however, is another matter. Trump’s tariff policies have caused considerable unease among American trading partners. India has not been immune to these pressures. With Democrats controlling Congress, some of the administration’s trade decisions may face closer examination. That could provide an opportunity for India, although expectations should remain modest.
The Democrats have their own reservations about free trade. Protecting American jobs and domestic industries is no longer simply a Republican concern. New Delhi should therefore not assume that a Democratic Congress will necessarily be more accommodating towards Indian exports or market access.
There is also the question of India’s domestic politics. Democratic lawmakers have often raised concerns about religious freedom, minority rights and democratic institutions in India. With greater influence over congressional committees, such issues could attract renewed attention.
India may disagree with some of these criticisms, but it would be unwise to treat every disagreement as evidence of hostility. Washington and New Delhi have differed on several international questions in the past without allowing those differences to destroy their relationship.
For Indian students and skilled professionals, the election results may offer some encouragement, particularly after the increasingly hostile immigration debate in the United States. Nevertheless, a more sympathetic political atmosphere does not automatically translate into easier visas or immigration reforms. American politics remains deeply divided on these questions.
Perhaps the most important lesson from the elections concerns India’s approach to Washington itself. New Delhi has worked with Republican and Democratic presidents before. It must continue doing so, while giving considerably more attention to the institutions and political actors beyond the White House.
For all the talk of personal friendships between leaders, international relations are ultimately shaped by national interests. India’s importance to the United States rests on much more than political goodwill. Geography, economic opportunities, technological cooperation and concerns about China’s rise have brought the two countries closer.
The Democratic victory will undoubtedly make life more difficult for Trump. Whether it makes India’s relationship with Washington more difficult is another question. Much will depend on how skilfully New Delhi deals with an increasingly divided American political establishment. The relationship is too important to be left at the mercy of electoral politics.
